Norvast,illusion– Here is a rec

I keep an active account open on the ASX.   Just became convinced that Hot Chile (HCH) is worthy of a long term hold and very cheap.  Just bought a bunch.  Might want to check it out.  Great management of a copper play that will get built and its low altitude in Chile, not some crazy mega mine at 15,000 feet.

norvast

Hi there. I’m in NZ, so not much of a choice here for PM stocks.

I’ve bought KCN recently, and have held BDR for a while. My cunning theory is they pay a divvy (KCN), or plan to (BDR), and that tends to attract bids.

Also hold GRY, on basis of geo’s camp talk via a son who was a drilling supervisor in West Africa. They seem to have a comparatively rich ore body, and some cash and lines of credit.

Have NST on watch (great minds eh!) – just spotted it about 10 days ago, but a crowd of buyers pulled the trigger before me. Now waiting for a bit more of a pull back. Maybe in next day or two, with options expiration nearby, POG will retreat and I’ll pluck up courage.

Valuations are ridiculously low across the sector; just too tempting for me not to be in. But I have thought this for a couple of years now, to the detriment of my bank balance…………….

I’ll go check out your other picks.

Cheers.

Server Maintenance

Goldtent may be offline for a few hours this evening for server maintenance .

Hi North

Yes all TA all the time

You and grin inspired my interest in TA way back at the first Tottsville Meeting of the Goldminds

you were the resident TA Tenters

Looking forward to sharing Trading Ideas based on the myriad of different TA disciplines

should be a busy site when word gets around

Give grin a shout and let him know…he always has an interesting perspective

Fully

Fully

Great site. All TA. Just what I like, though I do like GE and Oasis too. All are interesting in their own ways. :)

Nemo

I slept like a baby

woke up every hour crying

:)

question for illusion

I am Australian

What Aussie stocks are you buying?

My picks are NST, EVN and NCM with NST the most undervalued stock on the ASX

Would appreciate your views.

Fully…. when do you sleep??!!

Here on the west coast it has been 30 – 32 degr Celsius for two weeks. Not a cloud. Water temperature +24 C.

But we will probably have some heavy thunderstorms this evening. The forcast signals: Spectacular event and a bit cooler after.

best to you,

NEMO

Nemo

Thank You

Nice to see you

How is the summer in Sweden ?

Fully…. 0.49

Thanks for the compilation….. very good summary, and much to ponder about!!

NEMO

GDX Daily

JNUG

Momentum Trading Chart…
X3 ETFs are for ST trading only.

This is an addendum to a post at 2:33 on Oasis

Plunger

If you are on Browser uploader switch to flash uploader

standing by but falling asleep

Would you short this? Update

This is a better weekly chart.   And yes it is the inverse to the GDX.  Looks to be a pretty juicy ripe short, just begging to be shorted.  Hence one would want to be long, and oh that measured move!

Illusion

You passed the test

excellent

that does look like a bottom to me !

Buy and Hold !

cheers

Fully

Plunger has me scratching head – $ONE? Must mean an inverse

In any event, I’m long this baby (via Aussie gold stocks)

scharts.co/1rUnL9S

Testing my posting capabilities here.

Goldtent Timeline and Offer

This email seems to be missing
from Administrators post at Oasis

From

John Murphy
21/07/2014
To: Gary Magder, audept
Cc: Ian, JIM, Tony-buygold, Weston Williams

murphys@bellsouth.net

gary

no thank you and todd on the offer to pay any freight whatsoever on oasis. I’ll cc the boys with this email as passed on.

john

…………………………………………………………………………………..

(john = Wanka …flat out refusing our olive branch)

WHY WOULD ADMINISTRATOR FORGET JUST THIS ONE ?

………………………

What it all boils down to : In a general nutshell

2006…Audept Decides to build Goldtent and Buys a server and buys the rights to the domain names and gets to work

2007 ..Goldtent opens…Audept asks Fullgoldcrown to take the responsibility for the server and the domain names

2008…This is the final year of the Server Contract paid by Fully and Audept
………. Fully pays domain name registry ( for all 3 goldtents .org .com .net)

2009 …Fullgoldcrown pays for new host server…a Tentathon is organized by Wanka to cover the cost
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2012….Fullgoldcrown pays for host server…a Tentathon is organized by Wanka to cover the cost
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…………Rambus1 Opens (Dec 2011)…Fully and Audept use a small portion of the excess capacity of the server
…………Rambus1 does not pay the owner of the server for this

2013….Fullgoldcrown pays for a new host server…residual money from the previous tentathon
is credited ($840) and the remaining roughly $2000 Is paid for by Rambus Chartology
…………Fully pays domain name registry ( for all 3 goldtents .org .com .net)

2014….Fullgoldcrown pays for host server …Rambus Chartology reimburses him 100%
………..Fully pays domain name registry ( for all 3 goldtents .org .com .net)

July 2014 Oasis is formed

…………………….
The dispute boils down to this

Wanka contends that the Tentathon Donators

did not know there was another site using the same server and therefore

were not treated fairly .

I believe everyone got the service they donated for..

A good efficient server to host goldtent for their and thousands of others enjoyment

Note also the 3 principle in this dispute were amongst those who donated

…………………………………….

However if any 2012 Tentathon Donner feels they didn’t receive full value for their donation

or feels they were otherwise not treated fairly

or just wants their donation returned

please do not hesitate to contact Fullgoldcrown at

gmag@live.ca for a full refund

We are truly happy to see our 2006 vision of a Goldbug Site to bring likeminded individuals from

all over the planet ….has grown into a wonderful community and we are happy this community will

continue to thrive

Goldtent will continue to be a going concern with a different format

So Now there is one more place for Goldbugs to hang their hats

All the best to all are friends past present and future

Sincerely Audept and Fully

Heres a mouthful via another forum

Sat_Midas_Touch

Always Note his alternate counts (dashed lines)….

Arguments for lower prices:

  • 3-years downtrend: Overall Gold still is in a downtrend. US$1,525.00 remains the line in the sand. Gold will need much more time to break through this heavy resistance. Only a move above US$1,390.00 and especially US$1,430.00 will indicate that the mid- and longer-term trend indeed has changed.
  • Gold Monthly Chart: MACD sell signal active since november 2011 (this is extremely powerful and needs to change before one can really call the bottom). It looks like MACD could create a buy signal within the next 1-2 months. RSI still below 50 and in bear market territory.
  • Gold Weekly Chart: Gold failed to reach the blue triangle downtrend-line around US$1,365.00 during its latest advance. MACD is choppy while stochastic is in sell mode. Gold continues to move sideways and further into the blue triangle. No bullish indication yet. The chart remains basically neutral.
  • Gold Daily Chart: Gold had a big sell off from the top at US$1,346.80 two weeks ago. The short-term trend is down besides any whipsaw action. MACD sell signal active.
  • GLD: Still has an open gap around $122.70 to fill. This coincides with Gold correcting back to around US$1,280.00.
  • Gold Stocks: HUI has an open gap to fill around 227 points. Short-term Gold Bugs sentiment has eased in recent days but still sitting at slightly extreme optimism levels (70%). As well MACD & Stochastic sell signals are active.
  • CoT-Data: Commercial short position in Comex Gold Futures spiked up to 156,906 contracts last week and is sitting around this level. Although being still at low levels compared to other readings during this bull market this does not look very healthy. Many mining companies have increased their hedging due to difficult business environment, low Gold prices and high production costs. This is an important development to watch in the future. As well bullish bets on Silver have been at the highest levels in over three years.
  • Physical demand: China´s Gold imports via Hongkong reached a 17-month low in june. China´s Gold demand decreased by 20% in the first six months of 2014 while at the same time Chinese Gold production increased by 9%.
  • US-Dollar: The dollar seems to be tracing out an inverted head & shoulder bottoming pattern. A rallying dollar will not be friendly to the metals.
  • Stock-market: The retail money market ratio is at lowest levels since nearly 20 years showing that investors are fully committed to the markets. Same analysis for the Rydex Money Market %. When traders are so optimistic and sure of themselves that money market assets account for less than 40% of total assets, then it usually coincides with a market peak. The conclusion is that a deflationary crash might be looming which would not be good for precious metals in the beginning. Only after central bankers start flooding the market with even more liquidity the precious metals sector will outperform all other asst classes….
  • Baltic Dry Index: At its lowest levels since 1986!

 

Arguments for higher prices:

  • Higher Low: The uptrend since the beginning of the year is still valid. The correction during spring did not reach a new low below last december´s US$1,180.00. Instead Gold turned higher from US$1,240.20. This is extremely positive because we now have a series of higher lows. The market will soon want to figure out if the lower high at US$1,395.00 (from march) is still valid.
  • Gold Monthly log-Chart: Longterm trend-line is intact and now around US$1,255.00. Any move below US$1,250.00 is highly unlikely and would mean the end of this secular bull market! As well MACD is about to create a powerful longterm buy signal.
  • Gold Weekly Chart: Since May 2013 Gold is moving sideways between US$1,180.00 and US$1,434.00. The current blue triangle should break within the next 1-3 months. Resistance at US$1,360.00 and solid support around US$1,265.00. The parabolic SAR indicator remains in buy mode until US$1,265.39 is taken out. Weekly lower Bollinger Band at US$1,248.11 will be strong support too.
  • Gold Daily Chart: Gold bounced off the 200-MA (US$1.286,95) and the 50-MA (US$1,293.97). Both moving averages offer good support and running basically sideways. Slow Stochastic is oversold while RSI has been neutralized in the last two weeks. The huge sell off two weeks ago did not lead to a follow through. Also note that besides all the bearish talk the gold bears did not make any progress since more than one year!
  • Gold/Silver Ratio: Currently at 62.92. Silver continues to be stronger than Gold. The ratio is consolidating since early july and is barely holding above an important uptrend-line. Any convincing close below 61.50 would confirm a new rally in the precious metals sector. Short-term it looks like it could continue to consolidate around its 200-MA (63.38).
  • Gold-Stocks: According to www.goldstockanalyst.com Gold Stocks are 37% undervalued and trading as if Gold was at US$839.00.
  • Sentiment: Short-term sentiment is bullish with Kitco´s weekly Gold survey counting 63.6% bears. Longterm sentiment for Gold still is close to excessive pessimism.
  • Inflation: US-inflation officially at 2.1% leading to a current 10-year real interest rate at 0.25%. With many geopolitical risks in energy producing countries, oil and gas prices could quickly push inflation rate higher. As soon as real interest rates turn negative again Gold and especially Silver will start to sky rock.
  • Seasonality: Best time of the year is starting now. After 3 years with heavy corrections in autumn I think this year we could see a sustainable rally into december. Statistically best months of the year are august, september and november.
  • Euro CoT-Data: Commercials have been building up a massive long position. Sentiment is close to excessive pessimism. Therefore I do not expect the Euro to crash although the chart does not look very good. Instead combined with positive seasonality the Euro could surprise in the coming months. A weaker US-Dollar should lift precious metals.

 

Conclusion:

  • As always lots of data and lots of contradictory findings to digest. This is the result of mass psychology, complex market structures and a never ending stream of new developments. Welcome to the three-dimensional realtime puzzle….
  • My last analysis has been pretty accurate with Gold topping at US$1,346.80. My short sell recommendation should have worked out very well. Four weeks ago I also said we should see a summer low around US$1.270,00-US$1,280.00. So far the lows came in last thursday at US$1,286.95. On friday afternoon Gold recovered back towards US$1,308.50.
  • Due to the very bearish short-term sentiment readings I think Gold should have a few strong days next week. A recovery towards US$1,315.00 even US$1,330.00 might be possible. But I still doubt that this correction is already done. Instead I´d like to see the HUI closing its open gap and Kitco posting another survey with 60%+ bears.
  • The last two weeks have been quite similar to last year´s summer period. Back then Gold had been dancing and whipsawing around the US$1,300.00 level for around three weeks before a final sell-off took it down to US$1,273.00. Exactly from there the bull run towards US$1,434.00 started.
  • I don´t see Gold falling below US$1,250.00. Only if the stock-markets are crashing this becomes a possibility. Due to recent strength in Chinese stocks this is not very likely at the moment.
  • Swing traders need to be patient and avoid trading in this whipsaw environment. Scaling in with limit buy orders between US$1,281.00 and US$1,265.00 should be a promising recipe. Stopps should be placed below US$1,240.00.
  • Investors with a long-term perspective should have bought this week below US$1,300.00 according to my last newsletter. They should continue to accumulate physical Gold below US$1,285.00 and physical Silver below US$20,20.

 

Manipulation of the ‘gold fix’………..

Perhaps what is more interesting are the abnormalities in the price of gold as highlighted by Derksen, which clearly show the critical role the daily fix has in the manipulation of the price of gold, both in a downward and upward direction (my bold): whichever suits the London Fix member banks.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-26/london-fix-gold-rigging-bullion-bank-exposed-class-action-lawsuit-complete-charts

Lots of self explainatory charts suggesting riggers milk the fix at will, but not always via downward pressure.

HUI ihs— Jury is still out. Could break out of the neckline to the upside.

(Click chart a few times to enlarge)

Plunger

Yes I would short that chart

H and S Breakdown

………………………….

Note this site is not equipped for comments on posts

so answers will be in post form

>…………….

OK I peeked

You are a sneaky son of a gun

:)

Would you short this stock? Don’t look at the name just the chart

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Hi North

Time to dust off your charts and post a couple

PLAYING THE GOLD SILVER RATIO WITH PHYSICAL METAL

Saturday 26 July 2014

EDGE TRADER….FORWARDED BY CEDARWOOD

The magic of compound interest is well known. What is lesser known is the magic of
the gold/silver ratio, not as a measure as it is mostly viewed, but as an application for
increasing one’s holdings substantially, over time. What is so great here is that no magic
is involved, rather simply utilizing the market to more than double your holdings.

So-called “Gold Bugs” are considered ardent supporters of the PM [Precious Metal].
Silver stackers are just as avid. Then there are those willing to buy either or both.
The chart below is the gold/silver ratio going back 15 years, and this is a hindsight
analysis brought forth to the present tense for future consideration that can greatly
increase net holdings at almost no cost, those being transaction costs from a dealer.

Consider three investors: 1. a gold-only buyer who loves gold. 2. a silver-only buyer
who loves stacking. 3. A buyer of either or both and who wants to maximize what he
[she] owns. [Transaction costs are not considered, and some rounding off may occur].

Buyer 1 bought 20 oz of gold in 1995 for $380 the ounce, or $7,600. Buyer 2 bought
1,000 oz of silver at $4.30 the ounce, or $4,300. Buyer 3 bought 20 oz of gold because
the gold ratio favored holding gold, at the time. Buyers 1 and 2 safely stored their PM,
relying on over 5,000 years of history that could increase the value of what they owned.

Sure enough, by 2014, buyer 1′s 20 oz of gold are presently worth a tidy $26,000.
Buyer 2′s silver is now worth $20,500. Both have done well and are pleased with what
they have. Buyer 3 had something different in mind, and that was to put the market
forces to work in his favor and at no risk to his holdings. In what is to follow, there are
no right or wrong decisions, just some that work better than others.

Buyer 3 decided that at 80:1. gold over silver, silver would likely do better than gold,
strictly from a gold/silver ratio perspective. Price was of no consequence for he was
not selling his holdings, just switching from one to the other. Buyer 3 decided to take
his 20 oz of gold and exchange them for silver when the gold/silver ratio was at 80:1.

20 x 80 = 1,600 oz of silver exchanged from gold. He saw that 50:1 was strong support
and favored gold to outperform silver. In 1999, he switched his 1,600 oz of silver back
into gold. 1,600 divided by 50 = 32 oz of gold. Not bad. Now his original 20 oz of gold
became 32 oz, irrespective of market price. It was the relationship between the two that
mattered.

Around 2003, the ratio expanded back to 80:1, and his rule to switch from gold to silver
came back into play. His 32 oz of gold x 80 translated into 2,560 oz of silver, giving him
an added 960 from his last switch. Just like buyers 1 and 2, buyer 3 was at no risk of
loss because he was always invested in one metal or the other.

In 2006, the gold/silver ratio declined back to 50:1, and that was buyer 3′s signal to take
his 2,560 oz of silver and turn it back into gold. 2,560 divided by 50 = 51 oz of gold. His
original 20oz became 32 oz, and now he had 51 oz. Price was immaterial to his plan.

In 2009, the gold/silver ratio hit 80 again, and buyer 2 put his plan back into action,
switching his 51 oz of gold into 4,080 of silver. His application of the “magic” of the
gold/silver was working as planned, according to a few simple rules, his 80/50 rule, we
will call it.

A few years later, in 2011, when the gold/silver ratio came back to 50:1, buyer 3 was
ready. He took is 4,080 oz of silver and switched them for 81 oz of gold. All he did was
observe where support and resistance were in the gold/silver ratio. It did not bother
him in the least that the ratio went as low as 35:1 before turning back up. His plan and
his rules for implementing it were more important than trying to outguess the market.

One thing he did observe was how the gold/silver ratio kept stalling at 68 area. Things
change, like his original 20 oz changing to 81, and maybe the gold/silver ratio was in
the process of change? Like we said, there are no right or wrong decisions, just some
that work better than others. With that we are now in the present tense.

Buyer 3 has a decision to make. Wait for the 80:1 ratio, or recognize the possibility that
the current 63:1 may be worth taking some action and switching because 68:1 has become
resistance over the last 4 years. Buyer 3 could chose to hedge his bet, as it were, and just
switch half of his gold holdings into silver at 63:1.

If the ratio does go back to 80:1, he can switch the remainder. If the ratio goes no higher
than it has for the past 4 years and starts to decline lower, switching half his holdings at
63:1 made sense. What to do with the other half? What if 63:1 is a new high, maybe 35:1,
or lower can become a new low? There are always decisions to consider, but there are
none that are right or wrong.

Assuming buyer 3 waits for 80:1, he is now holdings 81 oz, up from his original 20 oz buy.
Buyer 1′s buy and hold strategy increased the value of his 20 oz to $26,000. Being neither
a “gold bug” nor a “stacker,” but just a “believer” in PMs, buyer 3′s $7,600 investment is
now worth $105,300. All three buyers were staunch “believers” in PMs, but buyer 3 held
a more pragmatic belief in the magic of the gold/silver ratio, as opposed to buying and
holding one or the other.

Let us add a 4th buyer who bought 1,000 oz of silver for $4,300 but also knew about the
magic of the gold/silver ratio. He began to implement the same rules as buyer 3, but had
started with silver, and not gold. Using the 80/50 rule, buyer 4 turned his 1,000 oz of
silver into 51 ounces of gold, presently worth $66,300. The difference is buyer 4 started
with silver and did not have the opportunity to start his plan until 1998, when the ratio
was at 50:1.

Presented for your own consideration.

Gold Silver RatioGold Silver RatioGold Silver Ration Jul 14Gold Silver RatioWhy do we show the same charts week after week? Because the market has not changed
materially over the past many weeks/months. As long as the market has not changed,
expectations that the price of gold and silver should not change, either. Expectations are
future hopes/plans that may or may not ever be realized. Present market conditions are
the reality of what is, without getting into the mental gymnastics about the degree of
reality reflected in the charts.

Market activity trumps everything, and one works with that reality or risks substantial
loss by favoring opinion/hopes/expectations. There is nothing overt that stands out on
the weekly chart. The fact that price closed in the middle of the TR [Trading Range],
means that the level of information is at its lowest. Price can rally to the resistance area
and fail, or decline to support and fail to go lower without violating the integrity of the
TR. Buying or selling in the middle can be costly, either way.

The D/S [Demand overtaking Supply] bar continues to hold as potential support. Gold
has declined deeper into its D/S bar relative to silver, but it is doing better than silver
by testing the upper channel line and holding the 50% on this decline. Price making a
lower high and lower low puts the daily up trend in question. It looks like more of the
same in the week[s] ahead.

The chart comments say what there is for silver. The trend remains down and rallies are
not sustained. It is possible that the D/S will turn into a valid change of behavior and lead
to a change in trend, but confirmation almost always comes after the fact. Just like in the
gold/silver analysis, one has to wait for confirmation of the change and no try to [usually
wrongly] anticipate it. In a down trend, time favors the sellers, not the buyers.

Where it looked like the daily performance in silver was relatively strong the past
two weeks, Thursday changed all that with another strong sell day followed by a
relatively weak rally. As with gold, there is nothing definitive for silver, either.

For physical holders, adding at current prices is almost imperative for those who
continue to buy. Adding the gold/silver ratio switch from one metal to the other,
as the ratio dictates, gives another option in the on-going war of Western central
banker destruction of paper currency in the service of trying to preserve it. That
irony will prove costly to those not holding physical PMs.

HUI

Considering the energy of the price moves on Friday and the decent volume in GDX, I am expecting HUI to exceed its recent high of 251.76.

From Plunger

Just a review of this chart that looks at the past 10 years. Looks to me the rally extends and we could eventually get some serious shortcovering. One could see a run to 300-350 HUL. I am not convinced the bear is over yet. The 100-150 level is still on my radar as a possibility after an extended rally. This would take at least another year to achieve.

Focus in on the Stochastics and the MACD and its histograms. These are pointing the way

sc-534

Clean Slate